12 replies to this topic

[OldWelshGuy]

How does everyone see this panning out?

I keep finding this going through my mind time after time, and the things that keep coming up are

How do Yahoo expect to win back searchers, when relevance alone is not going to do it? They are in the minds of many 'yesterdays men' how are they going to overcome the 'been there tried it, didn't like it' tag?

Microsoft are going to get their positioning boys out so where are they going to pitch themselves? How are they going to do a 'Lotus job' on Google?

Then we have Google themselves, what are Sergi Search & Larry Pagerank going to do to protect their market share? On current analysis they seem to be doing plenty to send searchers elsewhere, this is some act of 'lulling the opposition into a false sense of security'.

What ho!

[qwerty]

This is going back almost a year, but the Nielsen NetRatings for January 03 shows Google with 29.5% of all searches and Yahoo with 28.5%. I don't know how many of those people are using Yahoo just because they know it's Google. If they did, why wouldn't they just go to Google?

So I don't think that many people are going to jump ship when Yahoo makes the switch. So they've got a decent percentage of users to start with, and I'm sure they'll make a huge marketing push about how their results are even more relevant than they had been before.

MSN I'm not so sure about. I think it's going to be a while before they're ready, and they've got their work cut out for them. If everything I've been hearing and reading about Longhorn is true they may have a huge jump when the OS is released, but that's not for a couple of years.

[SearchRank]

Every client and person I know that uses Yahoo to search does not realize that Google powers their results (until I educate them on the matter). They will say to me things like "How do I get a better position on Yahoo and Google as well," or "I paid Yahoo $299 to list my site and I still don't show up."

So I would say that the majority of Yahoos that use Yahoo will not know the difference when they make the switch to Inktomi.

As for MSN, I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't still fishing to acquire Google. They are probably just trying to see if any bait ($$$) will work. In the meantime, they develop their own engine because their standard seems to be "we'll acquire you or kill you, one or the other - you choose!"

[OldWelshGuy]

If everything I've been hearing and reading about Longhorn is true they may have a huge jump when the OS

Do you think that they will face the same antitrust enquiry as they did with IE & windows though??

Currently i would say that those using Yahoo will get better results when they switch to INK.

[qwerty]

Do you think that they will face the same antitrust enquiry as they did with IE & windows though??

Very possible. That could be one of the many reasons this is taking them longer than they said it would, though that's nothing new for them.

Currently i would say that those using Yahoo will get better results when they switch to INK.

If they do it soon (and make a big deal about it) I agree. It really does look as if the new G algo improves itself over time (don't ask me how, I just read the theories), so Yahoo should strike while the iron's erm... irrelevant.

[Randy]

My Opinion? 12-18 months from now the market share for each of the three will be almost identical if you take into account only their own searchers.

Google has a large headstart, which helps them as long as they can get back to relevant SERPs before people start leaving for other services. Which will take forever. On the other hand, what happens if Sergey and Larry take the money and run after the IPO? I wouldn't blame them for doing exactly that.

Yahoo! has something of a built in clientele since anyone who uses SBC in the US automatically gets Yahoo Search. The "average" user will use the default as long as it helps them find what they're searching for. I expect they'll continue looking for such arrangements with other ISP/DSL providers. For reasons completely unrelated to search. (read: Voice over IP)

MSN will gain share quickly when they release their search and especially when Longhorn becomes the new O/S. They'll integrate their search into every program they can. And if they're smart (I give MS credit for being smart, even if I don't always approve of their methods) they'll integrate the beginnings of Search Personalization into this "beta" model. We've had that discussion before, so I won't go into it here.

The question I always come back to is What does AOL do? They currently have a search agreement with G, which effectively gives AOL's 20% (or so) marketshare to G. But they also have other, non-search contracts with MSN. And considering they own Netscape they know what happens when you try to go up against the the good folks in Redmond...more times than not you come out on the losing end since money isn't an issue in the short term for MS.

The way things stand today? Google controls 76% of the search market through their own searchers and agreements they have with AOL and Yahoo! The moment Yahoo! flips the switch (assuming they'll be using Ink results) that immediately changes to around 51% for G and 43% for Yahink (Yahoo and MSN combined).

When MSN takes their current market away from Yahink, it becomes more along the lines of G - 51%, Y - 26%, MSN - 17%, assuming the current numbers still apply. But remember that G's includes the AOL searches.

Whoever AOL ends up going with is going to decide which of the Big Three has the largest market coverage when it's all said and done. Don't think for one the guys & gals in Vienna, VA won't realize this. And use it to their advantage with any new search contract. Whoever ends up supplying AOL search results will likely be giving it away for free, just to be able to say they provide service to more searches than anybody else.

Starting to look more like the Good Ol' Days when there was a lot of competition in Search doesn't it? This is a good thing in my book! It's dangerous to have one company controlling too much of any market IMHO, which has been the case for the last few years.

My darkhorse candidate? Teoma. They really could make a lot of headway in the short-term if they can manage to apply their current technology to a considerably larger data set and put together an effective marketing plan. They're not on the radar screen yet me thinks. So they'd better get it done before they show up. Or get bought by Microsoft(?)

If Teoma stays independent, and can get their overall marketshare up in the 20-25% range quickly, we would end up having four (roughly) equal search engines. With the #1 being whoever AOL decides to go with at any given time.

Of course this is all rather subjective and just my lowly opinion. Makes ya wish you hadn't asked now doesn't it?

ps Yes MS will face an Anti-Trust suit again. And win again for all intents and purposes. They'll win based on the fact that their (Persoanlized) Search is such a leap forward from what anybody else has been doing that it's not the same thing anymore. Even if it is substantiall the same thing.

[Jill]

If they do it soon (and make a big deal about it) I agree.

Hmmm, that's an interesting thought. Now would certainly be the time to do that, while G's results are sucking in many places. In fact, it would be a great PR strategy. They could come out right now and say:

"We've decided to stop showing Google results, because we don't feel they are as relevant as what we can show with our own properties.  While Google used to have the best results (and that's why we were using them), the quality has degraded so much lately we felt it important to our users to make the switch at this time."

That would be a huge blow to Google.

Of course, they better make sure that their own results are actually better! Or at least as good.

And Randy, I agree that Teoma is the darkhorse and has a good chance of leaping ahead if they play their cards right. They are owned by AskJeeves however, so they'd have to allow them to do things the right way. I find it hard to imagine that they would if Teoma started gaining in popularity. Teoma is shown at Ask right now, but with tons of ads and stuff mostly taking over the page.

Jill

[Ron Carnell]

"If we dump Google right now, Yahoo! might be able to capture a significantly larger piece of the search pie."

"Maybe. But if we keep Google a few more months, how much will our investment in them be worth after the IPO?"

A shared history According to Fieler, Yahoo held an estimated 5 percent stake in the company at the time of its search deal with Google. Yahoo's Stevens would not confirm or deny whether the company has a stake in Google, saying only that it has never publicly announced such an investment.

From CNET News Story

[Scottie]

Which brings in another interesting thought... wonder how the investors are viewing the changes at Google? I'm sure there is a lot of discussion right now.

[Jill]

If they even notice, Scottie. I still don't think most people notice anything different with Google. Which is what they're counting on.

J

[Scottie]

I think people are noticing.

Loved Greg Boser's comment at SES, "My mom called me the other day and asked why Google sucked."

[BrianR]

Love him or loathe him, it pays to never underestimate Bill Gates. My guess it that he'll break cover with his new search technology far sooner than everyone's expecting and that it will be a genuine leap forward in search technology too, whether personalisation or whatever. He will position it as the search engine of the future, integrate it into Longhorn and he will clean up!

BrianR

[OldWelshGuy]

and he will clean up!

Again..